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Most Frequent Damage Base; Statistical Averages
Topic Started: Apr 15 2015, 06:36 PM (1,672 Views)
rlrichey
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Rival
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Assuming you have an infinite number of Pokémon in the ballpark of level 50, considering the occasional frequency restriction on high-damage moves, what do you estimate is the statistical most average damage base to be used?

I know that 4 is the most typical what with struggle attacks and basic moves, and plenty of Pokémon can do DB8+ At-Will. Once it gets higher than that, frequency restrictions mean that large damage bases are used so infrequently that the lower damage bases statistically outweigh them.

As a GM I'm trying to design an in-game construct that deals the absolute perfect most average damage, and I hope the way to do this will be to set the damage base with a level that the players are used to being hit with.

I think DB8+ the corresponding attack stat is fine, but I'd like a bit more feedback.
Edited by rlrichey, Apr 16 2015, 09:59 AM.
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Domo
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The average is really dependent on the Pokemon in question. Volcarona relies heavily on large base, AoE, low frequency moves - that's consistently more damage than say the near exclusively db 10 Hitmonchsn. And if you want to somehow average those two (and assumedly Pokemon dealing even less), just use set damage. A boss with theoretically average damage will only ever steam roll a party or crumple to them, not merely keep pace.
Edited by Domo, Apr 16 2015, 09:12 PM.
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DNA
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I wish I actually collected statistical data on this (maybe I'll ask EK...) but, in my experience, just overall, the average (and most frequent) DB for attacks used is 8. This might be because my game's combat encounters tend to be a bit prolonged, and Scene xX moves are not nearly as useful (as I am very quickly finding out - I miss Incinerate already).
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Elemental Knight
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Looking at the data from 1.05, since I just updated that sheet:

Mean: 7.6320
Median: 7
Mode: 8
Standard Deviation: 3.3865

Remember that "Mean" is what you typically think of for the average, "Median" is the number in the middle of a sorted list, and "Mode" is the number that comes up the most often. "Standard Deviation" is a measure of how wide-spread the numbers in the list are.

So, I can say the typical damaging Move will be 7.6, with about 70% of all Moves being within 3.4 DB of that number. To say it another way, roughly 70% of all damaging attack Moves are between DB 4 and DB 11 (inclusive), centering just south of DB 8.

Now, this is assuming that all damaging Moves have an even distribution - that Explosion shows up as often as Tackle as often as Roar of Time. You and I both know this isn't the case, though! Tackle is super-common, and Roar of Time is a Legendary's signature Move, so it shows up in the 'universe' of Pokemon Move lists once compared to Tackle's 137 instances. I could determine the mean/median/mode based on the actual distribution in Pokemon Move Lists, buuuuut I have to go to work in five minutes. I suspect it won't be that much different from the above result, either.

But maybe I'll try it out anyway and see what comes up. Because that'll include TM/Tutor/Egg distribution too, which should make some Moves much more common (for example, Return can show up on 725 Pokemon Move Lists - so, basically, everyone - and that means it'll weight the averages much more strongly than even Tackle would.)
Edited by Elemental Knight, Apr 17 2015, 05:53 AM.
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DNA
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Quote:
 
I could determine the mean/median/mode based on the actual distribution in Pokemon Move Lists,

A list like that would basically be sex for statisticians.

Quote:
 
"Standard Deviation" is a measure of how wide-spread the numbers in the list are.

No, that's what variance is. Standard deviation is the square root of variance, and represents a rough guideline of how far away data is from the mean.

Silly EK. :P
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Mawootad2
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Both variance and standard deviation are measures of spread.
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Elemental Knight
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Funfact: 23,782 Movelist entries are Moves that did not have a specific listed DB.

Here ya go.

This has every Pokemon's mean, median, and mode DB, the StDev, and some other data of potential niftiness, like each Pokemon's stage in their Evolutionary Family, whether they're a legendary or not, their Base Stat Total, and their Types. Now you, too, can be a giant nerd, just like me!

Now, all this data is from my spreadsheets, so it's always possible that there're errors involved. But even so, it should provide some usefulness.

For example:
DID YOU KNOW THAT...


Okay, that was exhausting. On the upside, though, I identified 160+ errors in my 1.05 PTU sheet, thanks to Moves with awkward cut-offs in their listing in the Tutor Move List section (seriously, I know it's proper english, but I'd dearly prefer if those were more clearly-sorted lists rather than paragraphs...). So I'll update that tomorrow.
Edited by Elemental Knight, Apr 17 2015, 08:42 PM.
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Paperblade
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A cursory glance at the spreadsheet suggests moves with variable DBs (such as five-strike moves, Pursuit, Natural Gift, Heavy Slam) just use the default DB and ignore that they can be other values. Is that right?
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Elemental Knight
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I'm using DB as listed in the PDF, so yes - Moves that have a listed DB, but could alter that based on their effect (like Pursuit) only use the listed DB. Moves that don't have a listed DB but deal damage some other way (like Sonic Boom) are considered DB 0 and generally ignored.

Now, I think that's acceptable error if you're talking about average DB, which is itself a kind of arbitrary concept. If you wanted to talk about the average damage a given Pokemon could do...

  • Pick a Level for said Pokemon.
  • Use my spreadsheet to generate that Pokemon at the given Level, with a neutral Nature. (This will give it a 'good but not great' levelling up point distribution.) This'll be used later, when you calculate the weighted average of their attack stats.
  • Take that Pokemon's Average (or maybe Mode) DB.
  • Now we need to know how many of that Pokemon's Moves are Special or Physical. This can be done with doing a VLOOKUP against every Move in that Pokemon's Movelist, checking Table3 in the "Behind the Scenes" tab on my spreadsheet (column 7), and then COUNTIF'ing both Physical and Special results. (Ignore Status! We know those don't deal damage and that's just fine.)
  • Use this to get a weighted average of the Pokemon's two attack stats. So if a Pokemon's full Movelist was 60% Physical and 40% Special damaging moves, you'd add (Attack * .6) + ( Sp.Attack * .4) = weight average of Pokemon's attacking stats.
  • For the chosen DB, assume all rolls are totally average (that is, right in the middle of their dice). Multiply this number by (1 + (crit range of Move)/20) to get the average DB roll for the Move.
  • Add the weighted attack stat average to the average DB roll of the Move.
And that's how I'd suggest you get a Pokemon's absolutely average attack.

There're steps you could take to go further, of course. You could include the Move's AC in the calculation, taking an average of all the Pokemon's Movelist's Moves' AC for a totally 'average' AC check for your totally 'average' Move. You can even go a step farther, and do a COUNTIF of all the Moves' Types, and see what the most common Type is - or go a step further, and use that to get weighted averages of what Types it hits for more or less damage, making its Moves a kind of 'alltype'.

However, that sounds like a lot of work to me, so I'm gonna go ahead and take the easy way out: I leave that as an exercise for the reader. I'm happy to answer questions people might have in implementing it, but I do have to go do other things with my life. >.>
Edited by Elemental Knight, Apr 18 2015, 05:54 AM.
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DNA
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<3
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